This year's posts
- Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
- Intermittent Distillations #4
- Anthropic Effects in Estimating Evolution Difficulty
- A Rough Perspective on Strategy Stealing
- The Wild World of Policy Debate
- Rogue AGI Embodies Valuable Intellectual Property
- An Intuitive Guide to Garrabrant Induction
- Intermittent Distillations #3
- Lumenator Recipe
- Pre-Training + Fine-Tuning Favors Deception
- Less Realistic Tales of Doom
- Making Markets Over Beliefs
- Agents Over Cartesian World Models
- Intermittent Distillations #2
- Meta-EA Needs Models
- RSS Feed
- Transparency Trichotomy
- Intermittent Distillations #1
- Strong Evidence is Common
- Open Problems in Myopia
- Towards a Mechanistic Understanding of Goal-Directedness
- An Ode to My Parents
- Revenge of the Prediction Market
- Maslow First and the World Second
- How Simulacra Levels Increase
- Seriously, the Map is Not the Territory
- Some People Are Smarter Than You
- Coincidences are Improbable
- Be Reliable
- Definitions and Examples of Simulacra Levels
- Be Specific About Your Career
- Money Can't (Easily) Buy Talent
2020
- Interpolate Claims (Un)charitably
- The First Sample Gives the Most Information
- Defusing AGI Danger
- Chain Breaking
- CFAR Retrospective
- My Routine
- Be Responsible
- A Math Student's Guide to Options
- Be Goal-directed
- Does SGD Produce Deceptive Alignment?
- Expected Money at Augur
- France Bet Postmortem
- Miscellaneous Mediocre Models
- The Solomonoff Prior is Malign
- Death is Bad
- Stories of my Life
- How to Construct Bets
- How to Buy Things
- These Legal Systems Do Not Exist
- AI Safety FAQs
- Be Stupid
- 100 Opinions About Emotions
- Be Perfect
- Review: Against the Grain
- These Are a Few of My Favorite Questions
- Review: Assorted Snacks
- Plans Never Err
- Three Things I've Learned About Bayes' Rule
- Stop Asking People To Maximize
- Resonant Quotations
- Contextualized Norms
- What I Want To Do With My Life
- In My Culture