Artificially Intelligent

Any mimicry distinguishable from the original is insufficiently advanced.

  • Expected Money at Augur

    | 706 words

    A contract that pays out $1 if Trump loses is currently available for about 65 cents on Augur. If you think Trump has an 80% chance to lose, this means you can approximately 1.2x your money in about a month. This is a good deal. The Kelly Criterion says you...

  • France Bet Postmortem

    | 398 words

    On the 18th of October 2020, I assigned a 50% chance that France’s daily COVID cases would not exceed 40,000 by the end of October. My friend Sidney assigned 70% chance, so we bet about it. As of October 22nd, I have lost this bet. Abram Demski recommends that people...

  • Miscellaneous Mediocre Models

    | 1404 words

    The world is very complicated. It is easier to engage with the world productively if you have simple models of how various parts of it work. These are some of the models I use. Some of them are more grounded in reality than others. Acids/Bases epistemic status: probably literally true...

  • The Solomonoff Prior is Malign

    | 5098 words

    Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual. This argument came to my attention from this post by Paul Christiano. I also found this clarification helpful. I found these counter-arguments stimulating and have included some discussion of them. Very little of this content is original....

  • Death is Bad

    | 561 words

    When I was about 13, I was at a birthday party. Someone started clapping and said: “every time I clap, someone in the world dies.” Someone else called out: “then stop clapping your hands!” Laughter ensued, and the incident was quickly forgotten. While you are reading this sentence, someone in...

  • Stories of my Life

    | 392 words

    Yesterday was my 22nd birthday, marking the end of my 22nd year on Earth. In honor of this, here are 22 stories of my life: When I was one, I locked myself inside the bathroom. My mother once took me shopping and I hid inside a circular clothes rack. Afterwards,...

  • How to Construct Bets

    | 484 words

    Suppose I think event \(E\) is going to happen with 50% chance and my friend thinks that it’s going to happen with 70% chance. Clearly, we should bet on it, but how do we do that? Simple algebraic manipulations suffice to show that a fair bet assuming \(E\) happens at...

  • How to Buy Things

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    “Money doesn’t buy happiness.” This proverb is spoken by people who prioritize other things over money. Sometimes this proverb is also spoken as slight upon people with a lot of money. Are people wrong to prioritize things over money? Probably not. Is the proverb true? Probably not. It seems a...

  • These Legal Systems Do Not Exist

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    Inspired by Legal Systems Very Different From Ours, Because I Just Made Them Up I The people of Edent do not know if they are good. This is not unusual; many people do not know if they are good people or not. However, the people of Edent also believe in...

  • AI Safety FAQs

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    Disclaimer: This represents nothing more and nothing less than what a single person thinks about a complicated topic. What is AI Safety? To help frame this question, we’re going to first answer the dual question of “what is Cybersecurity?” As a concept, Cybersecurity is the idea that questions like “is...