Artificially Intelligent

Any mimicry distinguishable from the original is insufficiently advanced.

I strive to take beliefs seriously. One way of doing this is betting on your beliefs. For that reason, I have taken the bettor’s oath. Below is a record of public bets I’ve made.

  • On the 4th of September 2020, I bet $800 of my money against $1200 of Noa Nabeshima’s money that the following will not happen: Systems in GPT line will make less than one billion dollars in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems by 2025, counting the best percentage estimates of product revenue for systems that contain GPT line subcomponents. Resolution will be adjudicated by this metaculus question. Winner: unknown.
  • On the 8th of September 2020, I bet $20 of my money against $17 of Jack Ryan’s money that the following will not happen: Donald Trump will be reelected president in 2020. Winner: Me.
  • On the 18th of October 2020, I bet $1 of my money againts $1.5 of Sidney Hough’s money that the following will not happen: the number of daily new coronavirus cases in France will rise above 40,000 in the month of October. Resolution will be adjudicated by worldometers. Winner: Sidney. Postmortem here.
  • On the 19th of October 2020, I bet $100 of my money against $100 of nhuvelle’s money that the following will not happen: BTC will not be priced greater than 19,891 USD at any point before March 19th. Resolution will be adjudicated by coindesk. Winner: nhuvelle.
  • On the 12th of November 2020, I bet $10 of my money against $10 of Sydney Von Arx’s money that the following would happen: I would write 10,000 words of my NaNoWriMo novel between 10am PDT on November 12th and 10am PDT on November 13th. Winner: Me.